British study says mesothelioma deaths will rise until 2015
A study by Britain’s Health and Safety Commission (HSC) estimates that mesothelioma deaths in that country will continue to rise for the next 10 years and will not return to levels similar to those seen 40 years ago until 2050. According to the study, there will be between 2,200 and 2,760 mesothelioma deaths every year from 2011 until 2015.
However, the study conceded that it may have underestimated the rate of the decline that will occur in mesothelioma deaths 10 years from now. This assumption was based in part on a belief that rates of asbestos exposure have been at zero since the late 1970s. The HSC says that not only may this assumption be false but that the rate of mesothelioma deaths may be rising faster than predicted. Because the latest data analyzed in the study were collected in 2001, changes in mesothelioma death rates over the last two years may mean that the peak rate of annual deaths will be higher than what the study predicts and that this peak will come later than expected.
The increase in mesothelioma death rates—even after Britain banned asbestos products—is because of the long latency period between asbestos exposure and the onset of mesothelioma symptoms. Although mesothelioma is directly caused by inhaling airborne asbestos, it may take 20 to 50 years before a mesothelioma diagnosis can be made. This means that people who were exposed to asbestos as long ago as the 1950s may still be showing no mesothelioma symptoms—even if they inhaled toxic levels of asbestos fibers.